Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.5%). Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Duchene
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
50.0% (992)
+1.2%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
64.9% (148)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
34.4% (32)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
51.6% (182)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.2% (201)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
49.6%
49.9%
P2
56.2%
53.2%
P3
48.6%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | OT | 00:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OT | 04:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |