Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 75.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 79.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
45.8% (755)
+1.1%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
48.3% (60)
+24.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
27.6% (29)
+72.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +72.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
58.4% (125)
49.5% (396)
Away
48.4% (95)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
56.9%
50.2%
P2
52.5%
43.8%
P3
51.9%
41.4%
OT
80.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |