Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 68.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 84.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Duchene
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Duchene
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
44.7% (1,053)
+9.2%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
36.8% (95)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
65.0% (20)
+35.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Duchene
MacKinnon
Home
54.9% (113)
49.4% (553)
Away
51.4% (146)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Duchene
MacKinnon
P1
54.9%
45.3%
P2
52.7%
42.7%
P3
51.9%
45.1%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
60.6%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 11:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |