Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 57.0% vs Bjugstad 51.5% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 75.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (527)
50.4% (752)
+6.1%
Power Play
61.6% (185)
60.6% (104)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
59.3% (27)
58.3% (12)
+1.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (589).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
57.6% (403)
52.9% (461)
Away
58.3% (336)
50.4% (407)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
61.4%
51.5%
P2
58.5%
53.8%
P3
54.9%
49.8%
OT
40.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
62.1%
43.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2016 | 1 | 13:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 03:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 12:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 12:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 1 | 04:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |