Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 55.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 87.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 68.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 79.5%
20.5%
79.5%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Duchene
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Duchene
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
50.7% (906)
+5.8%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
48.1% (108)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
44.4% (239)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
56.6% (318)
49.8% (643)
Away
56.4% (319)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
57.2%
49.4%
P2
55.1%
50.5%
P3
55.6%
47.9%
OT
81.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |