Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 34-20 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 95.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 76.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 89.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 89.1%
89.1%
10.9%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
20
(54 meetings)
34
20
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
14
10
Duchene
Bjugstad
24 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Duchene
Bjugstad
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
14
4
Duchene
Bjugstad
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
48.6% (6,634)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
55.2% (829)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.3% (614)
+4.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
54.5%
49.0%
P2
54.5%
49.1%
P3
53.4%
48.4%
OT
56.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 05:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | OT | 02:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 11:45 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |