Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 50.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 52.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
46.7% (398)
+6.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
51.6% (31)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
62.5% (8)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
54.9% (408)
47.3% (220)
Away
50.0% (432)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
52.5%
46.1%
P2
51.7%
46.3%
P3
53.6%
50.4%
Final 5 min
53.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 09:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 05:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |