Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 92.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 78.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 56.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
49.4% (867)
+4.5%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
56.0% (25)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
40.7% (216)
+59.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +59.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
54.9% (113)
46.5% (480)
Away
51.4% (146)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
54.9%
48.7%
P2
52.7%
45.6%
P3
51.9%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.6%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | OT | 02:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 06:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |