Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 85.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 55.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 6: Duchene 5-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
48.9% (280)
+2.3%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
50.0% (6)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.2% (36)
-30.5%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
51.6% (182)
48.4% (190)
Away
52.2% (201)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
49.6%
41.7%
P2
56.2%
56.6%
P3
48.6%
48.7%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |