Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Duchene
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Duchene
Bjugstad
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Duchene
Bjugstad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Bjugstad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
48.8% (467)
+6.6%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
53.4% (58)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
60.0% (5)
-18.8%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Duchene is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (399).
Duchene shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Duchene
Bjugstad
Home
56.2% (642)
49.0% (261)
Away
54.3% (580)
49.8% (269)
By Period
Duchene
Bjugstad
P1
56.2%
50.9%
P2
56.5%
50.5%
P3
52.9%
47.2%
OT
64.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 17:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 11:45 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 07:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 06:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 18:56 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 01:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 2 | 09:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2018 | 2 | 08:28 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |