Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Foligno 46.4% (+7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 58.3%
Defensive zone
Foligno 59.6%
Neutral zone
Foligno 62.5%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Duchene
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Duchene
Foligno
Last 8: Duchene 3-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
3
Duchene
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,112)
46.3% (566)
+6.3%
Power Play
56.0% (193)
43.4% (106)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (49)
46.4% (69)
+2.6%
On power play, Duchene has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Duchene is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (873).
Duchene shoots left. Foligno is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Duchene
Foligno
Home
55.7% (652)
48.9% (364)
Away
50.4% (702)
43.0% (377)
By Period
Duchene
Foligno
P1
51.4%
48.7%
P2
53.9%
46.9%
P3
53.3%
44.0%
OT
55.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 00:46 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |