Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Foligno 48.6% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 67.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 54.6%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Duchene
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Duchene
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Duchene
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
48.7% (495)
+4.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
56.9% (65)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
43.8% (144)
+0.0%
On power play, Foligno has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Duchene
Foligno
Home
54.9% (408)
49.6% (359)
Away
50.0% (432)
47.2% (345)
By Period
Duchene
Foligno
P1
52.5%
46.7%
P2
51.7%
52.7%
P3
53.6%
46.7%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |