Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Foligno 48.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 13-13 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 50.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.4%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Duchene
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
13
(26 meetings)
13
13
Duchene
Foligno
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Duchene
Foligno
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
3
Duchene
Foligno
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
3
Duchene
Foligno
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
48.3% (2,810)
+5.6%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
52.3% (730)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
44.0% (455)
+5.1%
On even strength, Duchene has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
Duchene
Foligno
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Duchene
Foligno
P1
54.5%
47.6%
P2
54.5%
50.4%
P3
53.4%
48.3%
OT
56.3%
29.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:45 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 00:46 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 3 | 16:05 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 24, 2017 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |