Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Foligno 49.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 73.3%
Neutral zone
Foligno 55.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Duchene
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Duchene
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Duchene
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
49.0% (261)
+2.2%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
57.1% (42)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.1% (51)
-30.4%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Duchene
Foligno
Home
51.6% (182)
48.9% (178)
Away
52.2% (201)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Duchene
Foligno
P1
49.6%
40.4%
P2
56.2%
55.8%
P3
48.6%
51.2%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |