Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +31.7% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 65.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Schmaltz 36.0% (+31.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 95.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 91.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Duchene
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
29.6% (253)
+32.6%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
50.0% (18)
+17.3%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
0.0% (1)
+59.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +59.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Duchene shoots left. Schmaltz is 28.4% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schmaltz
Home
66.5% (555)
33.1% (139)
Away
58.6% (543)
28.6% (133)
By Period
Duchene
Schmaltz
P1
63.2%
28.8%
P2
59.6%
31.7%
P3
65.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
65.9%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
30.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 16:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 2 | 13:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |