Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 59.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 54.5%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.8%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Duchene
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Duchene
Schmaltz
Last 8: Duchene 4-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Duchene
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
45.9% (665)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
46.8% (111)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (24)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schmaltz
Home
51.6% (182)
44.7% (409)
Away
52.2% (201)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Duchene
Schmaltz
P1
49.6%
40.3%
P2
56.2%
47.6%
P3
48.6%
51.0%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |