Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+15.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 68.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 73.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Duchene
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
38.5% (309)
+18.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
53.2% (79)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
25.0% (12)
-2.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schmaltz
Home
56.6% (318)
38.0% (184)
Away
56.4% (319)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Duchene
Schmaltz
P1
57.2%
40.3%
P2
55.1%
39.9%
P3
55.6%
40.7%
OT
81.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |