Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 96.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 94.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Duchene
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
10
(29 meetings)
19
10
Duchene
Schmaltz
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Duchene
Schmaltz
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
9
2
Duchene
Schmaltz
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
3
Duchene
Schmaltz
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
41.2% (3,399)
+12.7%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
47.1% (649)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.8% (134)
+1.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schmaltz
Home
55.6% (6,411)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Duchene
Schmaltz
P1
54.5%
41.1%
P2
54.5%
42.9%
P3
53.4%
43.0%
OT
56.3%
42.4%
Final 5 min
53.7%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 08:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 13:53 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 3 | 15:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2018 | OT | 01:59 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 2 | 18:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 1 | 16:51 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 19:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |