Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Roy 48.9% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 83.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 56.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
49.5% (746)
-2.6%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
50.7% (75)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
42.7% (110)
+57.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +57.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
58.4% (125)
47.7% (491)
Away
48.4% (95)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
56.9%
51.1%
P2
52.5%
44.6%
P3
51.9%
50.9%
OT
80.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |