Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Roy 47.2% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 69.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 76.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 82.7%
17.3%
82.7%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Duchene
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Duchene
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Duchene
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
47.5% (617)
+9.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
39.6% (53)
+21.7%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
46.4% (97)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
56.6% (318)
47.2% (398)
Away
56.4% (319)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
57.2%
48.6%
P2
55.1%
48.8%
P3
55.6%
43.9%
OT
81.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |