Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Roy 48.4% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 71.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 90.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 75.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
18
(29 meetings)
11
18
Duchene
Roy
Last 10: Duchene 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
3
Duchene
Roy
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
5
Duchene
Roy
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
4
10
Duchene
Roy
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
48.7% (3,719)
+5.2%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
49.5% (283)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
45.5% (477)
+3.6%
On power play, Duchene has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
54.5%
50.8%
P2
54.5%
46.3%
P3
53.4%
48.1%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |