Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Roy 47.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 60.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 66.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 63.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Duchene
Roy
Last 10: Duchene 3-7 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
3
Duchene
Roy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
5
Duchene
Roy
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
48.6% (679)
+4.4%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
48.0% (50)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
34.7% (49)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
54.9% (408)
49.3% (345)
Away
50.0% (432)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
52.5%
47.6%
P2
51.7%
47.1%
P3
53.6%
47.9%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |