Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Roy 48.3% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 88.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 83.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
48.3% (633)
+5.6%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
52.1% (48)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.7% (87)
+56.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
54.9% (113)
50.8% (376)
Away
51.4% (146)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
54.9%
53.8%
P2
52.7%
43.5%
P3
51.9%
46.4%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
60.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |