Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.2%). Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Roy 51.9% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.5%
Defensive zone
Roy 79.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 57.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Duchene
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Roy
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
51.9% (547)
-0.7%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
54.1% (37)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
53.3% (92)
-36.6%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +36.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Duchene
Roy
Home
51.6% (182)
54.0% (328)
Away
52.2% (201)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Duchene
Roy
P1
49.6%
53.5%
P2
56.2%
51.6%
P3
48.6%
51.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 01:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 19:58 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |