Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Nosek 51.4% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 53.1%
Defensive zone
McCarron 68.7%
Neutral zone
McCarron 53.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
McCarron
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McCarron
Nosek
Last 5: McCarron 3-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
2
McCarron
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
54.4% (215)
+0.1%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
0.0% (1)
+42.1%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
23.5% (17)
+11.8%
On power play, McCarron has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
McCarron shoots right. Nosek is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
McCarron
Nosek
Home
52.2% (339)
50.4% (127)
Away
54.2% (332)
53.8% (106)
By Period
McCarron
Nosek
P1
53.5%
51.4%
P2
50.6%
51.3%
P3
55.9%
53.2%
Final 5 min
45.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |