Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Nosek 51.4% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 85.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 60.4%
Neutral zone
Nosek 59.5%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
McCarron
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
McCarron
Nosek
Last 7: McCarron 1-6 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
4
McCarron
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
2
McCarron
Nosek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
53.0% (400)
+1.2%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
33.3% (12)
+22.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
45.5% (44)
+9.6%
On power play, McCarron has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Nosek is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
McCarron
Nosek
Home
54.6% (445)
49.6% (244)
Away
54.2% (478)
54.2% (212)
By Period
McCarron
Nosek
P1
53.6%
53.1%
P2
55.6%
51.4%
P3
53.7%
51.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:44 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |