Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Rasmussen on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Rasmussen wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rasmussen 48.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Rasmussen leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 59.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 64.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 64.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Rasmussen
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Rasmussen
Paul
Last 10: Rasmussen 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Rasmussen
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Rasmussen
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rasmussen
4
1
Rasmussen
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rasmussen
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (1,870)
52.5% (3,796)
-4.2%
Power Play
53.9% (154)
56.5% (480)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (147)
46.7% (574)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rasmussen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,349).
Rasmussen shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Rasmussen
Paul
Home
48.4% (1,087)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
48.1% (1,084)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Rasmussen
Paul
P1
47.8%
53.9%
P2
49.5%
51.0%
P3
47.0%
52.0%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rasmussen
32.0%▼
43.0%
48.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael Rasmussen |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:55 | Neutral | Michael Rasmussen |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Michael Rasmussen |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 01:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Michael Rasmussen |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Michael Rasmussen |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Michael Rasmussen |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 12:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 3 | 08:41 | Neutral | Michael Rasmussen |