Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zibanejad wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 71.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 59.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Zibanejad
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zibanejad
Dowd
Last 8: Zibanejad 3-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Zibanejad
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
51.7% (644)
+1.7%
Power Play
46.2% (39)
0.0% (2)
+46.2%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (141)
41.6% (221)
+3.1%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +46.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Dowd
Home
49.0% (429)
48.6% (451)
Away
54.1% (521)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Zibanejad
Dowd
P1
53.0%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
47.3%
P3
51.0%
51.4%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |