Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.7% vs Dowd 49.5% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 74.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Zibanejad
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zibanejad
Dowd
Last 8: Zibanejad 3-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Zibanejad
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Zibanejad
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (591)
53.4% (485)
+0.4%
Power Play
47.4% (38)
0.0% (2)
+47.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (117)
39.8% (186)
+3.8%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +47.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowd is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Dowd
Home
48.2% (307)
48.5% (307)
Away
54.4% (439)
50.3% (366)
By Period
Zibanejad
Dowd
P1
54.0%
50.7%
P2
51.0%
49.1%
P3
50.6%
49.6%
OT
55.6%
30.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |