Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 50.8%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 49.9% vs Dowd 50.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 66-51 in 117 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 86.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.9%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Zibanejad
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
66
(117 meetings)
51
66
Zibanejad
Dowd
Last 10: Zibanejad 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
36
11
Zibanejad
Dowd
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
35
Zibanejad
Dowd
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
20
Zibanejad
Dowd
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (11,540)
52.6% (5,850)
-1.8%
Power Play
52.2% (1,848)
56.1% (164)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (1,766)
43.9% (1,600)
-2.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zibanejad is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,628).
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Dowd
Home
51.6% (7,444)
52.1% (3,753)
Away
48.3% (7,711)
49.6% (3,862)
By Period
Zibanejad
Dowd
P1
50.4%
51.9%
P2
49.7%
50.7%
P3
49.8%
50.1%
OT
48.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |