Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.9% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 42 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 49.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 66-51 in 117 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 86.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.7%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Zibanejad
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
66
(117 meetings)
51
66
Zibanejad
Dowd
Last 10: Zibanejad 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
36
11
Zibanejad
Dowd
47 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
35
Zibanejad
Dowd
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
20
Zibanejad
Dowd
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (11,719)
52.4% (6,009)
-1.5%
Power Play
52.2% (1,849)
56.1% (164)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (1,790)
44.1% (1,635)
-2.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Zibanejad is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (4,681).
Zibanejad shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Dowd
Home
51.6% (7,566)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.3% (7,793)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Zibanejad
Dowd
P1
50.4%
51.7%
P2
49.7%
50.4%
P3
49.8%
50.3%
OT
48.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |