Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Jarvis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Jarvis 45.8% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 52.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 53.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Backlund
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backlund
Jarvis
Last 6: Backlund 3-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
2
Backlund
Jarvis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
46.2% (171)
+4.8%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
51.9% (54)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
39.4% (127)
+2.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Jarvis is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Backlund
Jarvis
Home
51.2% (782)
46.1% (204)
Away
49.4% (765)
42.6% (148)
By Period
Backlund
Jarvis
P1
51.5%
42.5%
P2
49.8%
42.9%
P3
49.9%
48.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:00 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |