Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Jarvis 42.6% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 89.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 83.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Backlund
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Backlund
Jarvis
Last 9: Backlund 6-3 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Jarvis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
2
Backlund
Jarvis
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
42.0% (352)
+7.7%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
43.7% (119)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
38.2% (157)
+5.8%
On power play, Backlund has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Backlund shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Backlund
Jarvis
Home
49.7% (8,565)
43.8% (336)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
38.7% (292)
By Period
Backlund
Jarvis
P1
48.5%
39.7%
P2
50.3%
39.5%
P3
48.4%
46.1%
OT
44.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.3%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:00 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |