Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Jarvis 46.8% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 65.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 90.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 90.9%
90.9%
9.1%
Backlund
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
44.2% (52)
+5.9%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
33.3% (6)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
40.0% (15)
+7.8%
On power play, Backlund has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. Jarvis is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Backlund
Jarvis
Home
48.1% (580)
43.6% (39)
Away
51.1% (653)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Backlund
Jarvis
P1
45.1%
37.5%
P2
54.7%
48.3%
P3
49.0%
38.9%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
25.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |