Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Jarvis 40.5% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 51.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 96.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 72.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 96.4%
96.4%
3.6%
Backlund
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Backlund
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
32.1% (81)
+18.3%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
38.6% (57)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
28.6% (14)
+12.0%
On even strength, Backlund has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Backlund shoots left. Jarvis is 29.6% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Backlund
Jarvis
Home
48.7% (749)
40.6% (69)
Away
48.1% (703)
28.9% (83)
By Period
Backlund
Jarvis
P1
50.4%
30.9%
P2
50.1%
30.6%
P3
45.8%
47.1%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
28.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
34.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |