Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Granlund wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 47.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.3%
Defensive zone
Granlund 50.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Granlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Granlund
Hertl
Last 10: Granlund 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Granlund
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Granlund
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Granlund
2
0
Granlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (1,001)
51.6% (1,084)
-3.9%
Power Play
53.4% (73)
61.0% (246)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (132)
44.1% (136)
-3.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Granlund is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (738).
Granlund shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Granlund
Hertl
Home
45.9% (582)
55.2% (696)
Away
48.4% (624)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Granlund
Hertl
P1
48.6%
55.4%
P2
46.7%
54.8%
P3
46.9%
48.9%
OT
31.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.4%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
47.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | OT | 02:17 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:39 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |