Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Granlund 77.1%
Defensive zone
Granlund 68.3%
Neutral zone
Granlund 73.5%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Granlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
25
(44 meetings)
19
25
Granlund
Hertl
Last 10: Granlund 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
12
Granlund
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
10
8
Granlund
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Granlund
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (6,718)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.3%
Power Play
52.7% (748)
59.3% (1,975)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (635)
46.3% (806)
-2.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Granlund is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,142).
Granlund shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Granlund
Hertl
Home
50.8% (3,884)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.3% (4,217)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Granlund
Hertl
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
54.1%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
OT
44.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |