Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Granlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Granlund wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 45.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Granlund leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 58.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Granlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Granlund
Hertl
Last 10: Granlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Granlund
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
4
2
Granlund
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Granlund
1
0
Granlund
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (295)
54.1% (1,117)
-7.3%
Power Play
38.5% (26)
59.8% (296)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
36.5% (63)
34.4% (32)
+2.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Granlund is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Granlund shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Granlund
Hertl
Home
47.8% (178)
54.3% (709)
Away
41.7% (206)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Granlund
Hertl
P1
44.7%
51.6%
P2
42.9%
53.6%
P3
45.7%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:05 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |