Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Zacha 49.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 68.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 59.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 54.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Frost
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Zacha
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
5
Frost
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
4
1
Frost
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
48.9% (5,102)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
55.6% (804)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
42.2% (555)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Frost
Zacha
Home
51.0% (2,047)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Frost
Zacha
P1
50.8%
49.9%
P2
51.1%
49.2%
P3
48.5%
48.1%
OT
66.7%
53.1%
Final 5 min
48.7%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |