Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Strome 44.6% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 59.5%
Defensive zone
Strome 81.8%
Neutral zone
Strome 70.2%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Frost
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Frost
Strome
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
2
Frost
Strome
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
3
11
Frost
Strome
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Strome
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
44.1% (6,839)
+5.3%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
49.3% (854)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
41.5% (410)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Frost shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Home / Away
Frost
Strome
Home
51.0% (2,047)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
Frost
Strome
P1
50.8%
44.0%
P2
51.1%
45.3%
P3
48.5%
44.3%
OT
66.7%
46.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:20 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |