Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 49.3% vs Novak 45.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 78.1%
Defensive zone
Novak 53.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 64.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Geekie
Novak
Last 6: Geekie 2-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Geekie
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Geekie
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (505)
43.8% (384)
+6.1%
Power Play
0.0% (6)
58.8% (17)
-58.8%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (93)
100.0% (1)
-51.6%
On power play, Novak has a +58.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
50.0% (314)
46.5% (202)
Away
48.3% (290)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
51.3%
49.2%
P2
46.9%
44.2%
P3
49.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
49.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |