Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Geekie wins 42.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 56.6%
Defensive zone
Novak 66.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Geekie
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (117)
41.4% (379)
+5.6%
Power Play
47.1% (34)
46.9% (32)
+0.2%
On even strength, Geekie has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (95).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
45.3% (75)
42.6% (195)
Away
46.8% (79)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
43.1%
42.4%
P2
48.1%
39.2%
P3
47.5%
44.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |