Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Geekie wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.5% vs Novak 43.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 71.4%
Defensive zone
Geekie 59.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Geekie
Novak
Last 10: Geekie 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Geekie
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Geekie
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,307)
42.1% (1,539)
+6.7%
Power Play
45.7% (188)
51.9% (133)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
50.0% (2)
-4.3%
On even strength, Geekie has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,923).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
50.0% (1,281)
45.3% (814)
Away
46.8% (1,343)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
48.6%
43.9%
P2
48.8%
42.8%
P3
47.7%
41.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |