Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Geekie wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.4% vs Novak 43.6% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 64.8%
Defensive zone
Geekie 64.6%
Neutral zone
Geekie 51.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Geekie
Novak
Last 10: Geekie 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Geekie
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Geekie
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,289)
42.2% (1,366)
+6.5%
Power Play
45.9% (183)
53.3% (120)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
50.0% (2)
-4.3%
On power play, Novak has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,909).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
50.0% (1,277)
46.0% (737)
Away
46.8% (1,324)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
48.4%
43.9%
P2
48.9%
44.2%
P3
47.5%
40.9%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.3%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |