Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Geekie wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.3% vs Novak 45.0% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Geekie 56.3%
Defensive zone
Geekie 50.0%
Neutral zone
Geekie 50.5%
Result
Morgan Geekie favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Geekie
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (352)
42.9% (198)
+2.8%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
40.9% (22)
+22.3%
On power play, Geekie has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (307).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
48.5% (165)
40.9% (110)
Away
45.0% (209)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
48.5%
39.1%
P2
45.1%
43.9%
P3
45.8%
44.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▼
47.5%
46.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |