Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Roy 48.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 69.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
MacKinnon
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
MacKinnon
Roy
Last 8: MacKinnon 5-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
3
MacKinnon
Roy
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
48.3% (633)
-3.6%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
52.1% (48)
-15.3%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
43.7% (87)
+21.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Roy is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Roy
Home
49.4% (553)
50.8% (376)
Away
40.0% (615)
45.4% (392)
By Period
MacKinnon
Roy
P1
45.3%
53.8%
P2
42.7%
43.5%
P3
45.1%
46.4%
OT
46.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |