Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Roy 47.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 77.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
MacKinnon
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKinnon
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
MacKinnon
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
MacKinnon
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
48.6% (679)
+0.6%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
48.0% (50)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
34.7% (49)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Roy
Home
50.9% (740)
49.3% (345)
Away
49.0% (774)
46.4% (433)
By Period
MacKinnon
Roy
P1
50.9%
47.6%
P2
51.8%
47.1%
P3
47.1%
47.9%
OT
58.8%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%