Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 52.2%). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Roy 51.9% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 84.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
MacKinnon
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
MacKinnon
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
51.9% (547)
-1.9%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
54.1% (37)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
53.3% (92)
-18.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Roy
Home
53.3% (591)
54.0% (328)
Away
49.6% (581)
50.6% (348)
By Period
MacKinnon
Roy
P1
49.9%
53.5%
P2
53.2%
51.6%
P3
50.8%
51.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |