Nathan MacKinnon vs Nicolas Roy
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Roy 48.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
MacKinnon
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
MacKinnon
Roy
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
2
MacKinnon
Roy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
4
MacKinnon
Roy
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
4
MacKinnon
Roy
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,218)
48.7% (3,719)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.3% (1,412)
49.5% (283)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
45.5% (477)
-2.7%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
MacKinnon shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Roy
Home
49.7% (6,444)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
44.0% (6,689)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
MacKinnon
Roy
P1
47.4%
50.8%
P2
46.6%
46.3%
P3
46.1%
48.1%
OT
48.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:16 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:31 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |