Nathan MacKinnon vs Pierre-Luc Dubois
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Dubois 49.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Dubois leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.9%
Defensive zone
Dubois 60.3%
Neutral zone
Dubois 52.2%
Result
Pierre-Luc Dubois favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
MacKinnon
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Dubois
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Dubois
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
1
2
MacKinnon
Dubois
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Dubois
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
46.2% (225)
+3.8%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
66.7% (27)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
75.0% (8)
-40.6%
On penalty kill, Dubois has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Dubois is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Dubois
Home
53.3% (591)
46.6% (163)
Away
49.6% (581)
53.6% (97)
By Period
MacKinnon
Dubois
P1
49.9%
45.0%
P2
53.2%
52.3%
P3
50.8%
50.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:25 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |