Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Strome 42.3% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 69.7%
Defensive zone
Strome 60.4%
Neutral zone
Strome 65.9%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
MacKinnon
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
MacKinnon
Strome
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
2
MacKinnon
Strome
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
5
MacKinnon
Strome
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Strome
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
41.2% (1,040)
+8.0%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
43.0% (151)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
51.4% (35)
-2.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Strome
Home
50.9% (740)
40.1% (581)
Away
49.0% (774)
43.1% (645)
By Period
MacKinnon
Strome
P1
50.9%
41.4%
P2
51.8%
42.9%
P3
47.1%
40.5%
OT
58.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 15:57 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |