Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Reinhart 50.5% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Last 7: MacKinnon 2-5 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
MacKinnon
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Reinhart
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
MacKinnon
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
49.4% (259)
-4.7%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
54.4% (136)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
47.9% (71)
+17.1%
On power play, Reinhart has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
MacKinnon shoots right. Reinhart is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Home
49.4% (553)
54.9% (235)
Away
40.0% (615)
46.3% (231)
By Period
MacKinnon
Reinhart
P1
45.3%
52.3%
P2
42.7%
50.0%
P3
45.1%
50.0%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:21 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |