Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 55.5%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 81.8%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 67.1%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
5
MacKinnon
Reinhart
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Reinhart
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
44.1% (324)
+5.1%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
40.3% (72)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
33.9% (118)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
MacKinnon shoots right. Reinhart is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Reinhart
Home
50.9% (740)
40.5% (232)
Away
49.0% (774)
41.8% (282)
By Period
MacKinnon
Reinhart
P1
50.9%
46.4%
P2
51.8%
32.6%
P3
47.1%
45.4%
OT
58.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |